Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
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I actually did improve with another Q on the turn, but bet out. I thought his cap may have just been for effect after a failed 2-bet, and he may check through the turn. Is that so totally unlikely?
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Given that the flop was a rainbow, a turn checked to the button is likely to induce a bet. The idea is that button raised the flop with something: typically, we see this as a strong pair, overcards, or a good flush/straight draw.
This board is too uncoordinated for a flush or straight draw, so he's not betting that.
The only remaining overcards are AK, and that's at least possible.
In any case, when a scare card hits the board and everybody checks to the preflop and flop raiser, the typical thought process goes "wow! They're scared of this card! Let me see if I can pick up the pot right here."
If button bets roughly 2/3 of the time, you make money with a check-raise here. It's a gamble, but I think it pays off more than it craps out.
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