[Soxx Clinton]

Warren Buffett made an interesting comment about trader performance records with his famous "coin flipping contest" argument. ie. Even with millions of participants in a huge tournament someone will still win the tournament. Does that make the winner an expert coin flipper?

That said, having read both books, and being a portfolio manager by trade, I think that there is a grey area in between the two books. I think it is possible to beat the market (and have consistently done so myself) but like anything else worthwhile, it is fairly difficult to do, is a lot of work, and takes a certain disposition.

For most people I think trading is -EV. This is confirmed by the numerous studies on retail trading accounts, mutual fund performance, day-trader failure rates, and even independent floor traders who constitute a hugely motivated and full-time group.

In other words, who wants to spend hours a day working on trading when you only have a ~10% chance of beating the market. Of those ~10%, how many beat the market by say double-digits per annum? If not, does the extra 5% a year compensate for the time, training, and stress of just holding the SPY's which if you hold them long enough are an almost sure thing?