[ QUOTE ]
Your goal is to make money, not to survive the hand.
If you call, then against one distribution of your opponents' hands, your equity is 60.4%. (1st opponent: AA-88, AK, AQ. 2nd opponent: AA-JJ, AK. 3rd opponent: AA-QQ, AK. I used
PokerStove.) That 60.4% comes from some wins and some ties, usually against another AA, but for simplicity assume that you quadruple up 60% of the time and lose 40%.
The independent chip model says that if you quadruple up, you take first 40.0% of the time, second 26.7%, and third 16.7% of the time. That is worth 31.3% of the prize pool. (You have 4 times the number of chips, but you are only about 3 times as happy as you were at the start.) You get this 60% of the time, for an average value of
18.8% of the prize pool from calling.
If you fold, you survive 100% of the time. Assume there is no tie, and two players get knocked out. By the independent chip model, you win 10.0%, you place second 11.0%, and you place third 11.8%. Your expected share of the prize pool is
10.6%.
You should call. According to these models, it is right by about
8.2% of the prize pool, about 3/4 of a buy-in. That is huge. If you fold, you are throwing away the amount of profit a good player expects to make over several tournaments.
If you are a losing player, folding AA will save you time. However, it would be even more efficient to transfer all of your money to me.
[/ QUOTE ]
Thx it was exactly something like that I was looking for