[ML4L]

Hey jump et al.,

I wanted to post this as soon as I read your thread, but I figured I would wait a little to let the flamers flame and everyone pile on. Now, it's time to set the record straight...

The vast majority of people in this thread are looking at the situation incorrectly. The general assumption behind making decisions at a poker table is that players want to maximize EV. Period. Ideally, a player would be EV neutral and be OK with flipping a coin for his stack at any given time. And, I think that it's a safe assumption that, if you are not willing to flip a coin for your stack at any given time, you will not be able to make the plays necessary to maximize your EV...

Clearly, this poster is an exception to the general case. His top concern is minimizing variance. His question was not, "Is folding AA preflop +EV," as everyone knows that it is not. His [implicit] question was, "Does the fact that I would fold AA to an all-in preflop mean that I shouldn't be sitting in this game?" The answer to that, from an EV perspective, is: not necessarily.

I contend that, in a very soft game, it is absolutely possible to maintain an edge in the game even if you were to pass up situations where you could push a relatively large edge for all of your money. Depending on the texture of the game, you could employ a strategy of only playing for big money if you have the nuts (or close to it) on later streets, assuming that your opponents are not perceptive enough to know that this is your strategy. Of course, your opponents will be able to see that you are tight, but it would take time for them to know exactly HOW tight you are playing and how to take advantage of that. And, if you play position well and exercise pot-control, they're going to have a tough time taking advantage of you even if they DO realize that you only put in big money with the absolute nuts.

The ability to push every edge you are confronted with is NOT (I repeat, IS NOT) the criteron on which one should base their decision to sit in a game. The criterion is, "Given the strategy that I am employing, do I expect to make money in this game?" While in most cases, passing up edges as big as AA all-in preflop is too much to overcome, I can think of some games that I've played in where I am absolutely certain that I could have still be a winning player even if I kept every pot very small unless I had the near-nuts on the river.

So, to summarize, I (and other posters) wouldn't recommend that you play in a game in which you couldn't fathom losing your entire stack. EV-considerations aside, from a human standpoint, it generally isn't a good idea to play in a game where you are so incredibly uncomfortable that something like folding AA would cross your mind. And, I would be surprised if you could maintain much of an edge playing such a strategy. And, even if you could, if there was a 1/2 game running, I would imagine the EV of sitting there to be higher than nut-peddling the 2/5.

But, if that was the only game running or the other game had a wait, etc., and you are JUST wondering whether the fact that you would fold AA preflop makes sitting a bad idea from an EV perspective, the answer is: not necessarily.

ML4L