Re: Implied value and draws
[ QUOTE ]
Does implied value make it ok to call a pot sized bet on a draw?
Two questions:
Is calling a pot sized bet with his hand a good play?
If he somehow expected me to go all in on the turn, was it a good play?
[/ QUOTE ]
Like every other question in poker, "it depends". It depends on how likely you are to hit your draw, of course, but also how much you can conceivably milk out of your opponent if you do hit your draw (which is why you simply can't justify calling a huge bet with a gutshot by including "if I hit it, I win every chip on the table from everyone still in the hand" in your calculations).
So let's look at the math:
Your opponent has a double bellybuster draw, and is looking for a J or 7, so he has 8 outs on the next card only (I'm assuming that you're going to tap him on fourth street pretty much regardless of what comes up), so he's (from his point of view, not knowing our cards) 8/47 = .1702 to hit his nicely-concealed straight, and thus of course .8298 that he's going to miss on the next card and miss his chance because you're going to go all-in.
so what's his expectation?
.1702 he hits the straight and goes all-in, of which
- .1332 = he wins with his straight
- .037 = he hits his draw but you end up winning (filling up or making quads on the river)
so his real "win percentage" here (assuming youre not going to fold your set, no way, no how) is .1332
so .1332 of the time he wins all the chips he can, and .8668 of the time he loses his pot-sized investment
EV = (.1332)(115.50) + (.8668)(-15) =
...drumroll please...
$2.38.
Assuming you will always tap him on the turn, and that you will never fold, he makes $2.38 each time he makes that play.
Christ, it hardly seems worth even the emotional anguish of waiting on the outcome, does it? :P
|