[Che]

freekobe-

I would like to point out a few flaws in your reasoning to help you better evaluate these situations. Do not take this as a personal attack because that is not my intent.

I would be happy to elaborate on any of my comments if needed. I would be ecstatic if someone could point out an error that I have made so that I can eliminate that error and improve myself. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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Guaranteeing a double of your money by folding is certainly worth something here, isn't it?

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Yes, but that's the wrong question. The question is: is it worth more than the other alternatives?

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I can't see how pushing and busting (you tell me the odds of this) can be a better option than not risking your tournament life and folding for 400 chips.


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Pushing and busting is obviously a terrible option. However, pushing does not guarantee busting. You have to value the weighted average value of pushing versus the value of folding. And, you'll have to calculate the odds yourself according to your read on the button.

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what about working for 3 hours to come in 71st and have nothing to show

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The time already invested is sunk cost. It is irrelevant to your current (and future) decisions.

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You will have better spots to get your money in. That's a virtual guarantee.

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Situations better than AQ against a basically random hand with bubble folding equity are pretty rare IMHO.

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Even a random blind steal can net you 1200 chips.

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Yes, but it can also cost you ~2000 when you get reraised off your steal. Like your "pushing and busting" comment earlier, you're not comparing apples to apples.

The bottom line: Your conclusion (i.e. fold) may be correct, but your arguments for folding have serious flaws IMHO.

Later,
Che