[freekobe]

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We can go into "what's your goal - moneying or winning," but I don't think that's relevant here. Will the 3300 chips help down the road? Of course. But, and perhaps this is where the math is relevant, what about working for 3 hours to come in 71st and have nothing to show without any kind of read on the button raise? You will have better spots to get your money in. That's a virtual guarantee. Even a random blind steal can net you 1200 chips.

I have not had as much success as MLG (though I don't play nearly as many tournaments), but to me, this is frighteningly easy to throw away).

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Yes you will still have 3100 chips, but will you ever be in the position of having AQ against a button raise again? unlikely.

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Wait a second....OP had 10.5K in chips, a pretty good-sized stack in relation to the blinds. He was in no danger. He was definitely not in push mode, nor did he have to steal, nor did he have to take advantage of this opportunity.

My thinking in this: there are WAY too many variables here to make pushing in this situation +EV.

1. Two people with 100 chips left. > 95% that one of them busts in the next 5-7 hands.
2. No real read on the button. Could have a wide range of hands.
3. Because this is party poker and not a table of professional players, button is likely to call with a slightly wider range than we might expect (i.e. KJs, middle pocket pair).

I'm not math-savvy enough to figure out the odds of him folding, the odds of us doubling when he calls, or the odds of us folding and being successful down the road, but...

I've got to believe that with 1 player til the bubble bursts and opportunties left to gobble up small stacks (the field goes nuts when the bubble bursts), pushing here, under these circumstances is not +EV.