Results and Thoughts
Thanks for the responses.
The pro and I had been talking before the hand, and after I folded he showed me K [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . I've been raked over the coals for folding, so let me try and explain my thought process.
I thought the preflop call was marginal. When I flopped top pair, I wanted to lose as little as possible to an overpair. I thought the stop and go on the turn was the best way to get a good read on his hand. If he has an overpair he's just going to call; a raise will fold all the hands he's beating, and a 5 or straight will 3 bet or checkraise the river. If he has overcards, he's getting 6.25-1 (plus a bet on the end) on a ~7-1 shot ... when he's drawing live. Also, what's he going to do on the end when I bet again, which I sure as hell will if I'm bluffing? I go to the river with AK unimproved as often as the next guy, but when I've raised at every opportunity and someone still bets into me on the turn on a paired, connected board and the odds aren't really there, I'm usually done. I don't think this is the best time to pick off a bluff with overcards, and I think he has to put me on at least a pair here.
On the river, I'd usually check, and I'd call very nearly every time no matter what fell. I think a lot of players will grumble and fold a big ace here, but this being California, a lot of them will bluff. Since this guy was thinking about what I had, I figured a bet on the end had to be for value. Surely he expects me to call after betting into him twice, and with no overcard falling there's nothing out there for him to represent. And if I was bluffing and had given up, his hand might well be good unimproved. For me to be ahead, I thought he would have had to make a marginal call on the turn and dubious bluff on the river, so I could safely fold.
When he showed me his hand I was pretty surprised and asked him what he thought I had. "I didn't think you had anything. You're young, you want to win every hand right now." *Sigh*
Since I obviously managed to think myself out of a pretty big pot, how flawed was my thought process? Comments and criticism appreciated.
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