Re: War Strategy
There's a very real possibility that the deployment of the additional divisions was held back out of concern for the situation in North Korea and the risk of escalation in Afghanistan. While the public seems to have forgotten Afghanistan, it needs to be remembered that the Northern Alliance isn't our friend. Allies, perhaps but they still remain a threat to our forces. The availability of a number of readily deployable divisions is a significant deterrent to changes in their overall position relating to the US.
As far as North Korea goes. North Korea is a seven to ten division war after generation of air superiority. Those additional three to six divisions aren't currently extant but can be generated from reserve and National Guard components as well as IRR and former servicemen who are still under obligation. In addition, with the exception of immediate deployment of nuclear weapons by North Korea, combat in that theater can be developed much more slowly than in Iraq. It's a function of terrain and political boundaries. Once the current forces in South Korea are augmented and stabilized, the progression of battle into the north can be done incrementally allowing for use of massive air attacks and introduction of rapidly mobile forces such as Airborne and Air Mobile. Iraq "can" be fought out and finished by the tankers and cavalry. The Iraqi campaign doesn't "need" the 173rd, 82nd and 101st. They can be readily replaced by heavy infantry from reserve components and additional heavy armor if interdiction in North Korea becomes an issue. In addition, aggression by North Korea isn't likely to generate the international political disparities that have arisen from the Iraqi situation. Most nations understand that the Great Leader probably has nukes, probably has chemical weapons and he's crazy as a shithouse rat. In addition, Kim is a micromanager of near biblical proportion and a thoroughly ignorant amateur when it comes to military matters. In short, Kim is a thoroughly scarey individual to go to war with. The world community is at significantly more immediate and serious risk from North Korea's potential military action than they are from Iraq. The simple immediacy with which North Korea can deliver WMD by subterfuge into nations such as Japan, Taiwan and the rest of the Asian rim makes North Korea a danger that will be realized and met by a much wider coalition than in Iraq. Even the French are in a position to lose a lot of Frenchmen and a lot of French industry if Kim decides to go bug nuts.
While I'll agree that the delay is because of overconfidence, I can't agree that it's because of poor planning. Strategic pauses are part and parcel to any military plan. They're built in as contingencies because of the very real danger of unanticipated developments in the theater of war. Every leader from the fireteam to the DoD learns early on that you have to plan for times and situations that will make you sit back and wait. Even in the midst of a platoon level raid, pauses and "no-go" events are preplanned. If that platoon is halfway across the objective and the bad guys suddenly pop up with armor that wasn't in the initial intelligence, it's already planned how to egress the objective, pause the attack and invest heavier support for the attackers. It's basic, Corporal and Sergeant level tactical doctrine.
The Baron
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