Re: preflop with KQs
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I really think you make the most important points here. These really can't be good players, all limping with the blinds at that level. I think you should have enough time (although not a whole lot) to outplay these guys. Moreover, if they're so passive, I would expect some blind steals to work when you don't have the entire field to deal with (and I wouldn't be very picky about my hand if I have a good idea of who at the table is particularly weak).
I really don't think these pot odds, etc. consideration brought up by several other posters are really so much applicable in this kind of tournament situation. Ok, so you stand to gain a lot, which may or may not "guarantee" you the money (I don't see that it does from what has been said). But in tournament situations when you commit your whole stack, you really do want to be the favorite if called, and at worst a coinflip. If you lose, your chances of the money are now 0%. I think I'd really need to assess the chances that the field will fold at better than 50% in order to make this move.
[/ QUOTE ]
OK, yet another disciple of the Church of Wait for Better Opportunities. The OP has 7BB and he has been presented with an opportunity to make a play that will be wildly profitable and IMO can not pass it up. How profitable you ask?
Well let's start with some assumptions.
1) How often will everyone fold to a push? Based on the action described I think a conservative estimate here is 25% of the time. So in those cases he picks up T1100 (4 limpers plus the blinds)
2) What are the range of hands that will call him the other 75% of the time? Again, based on the action described it doesn't seem as if a hand that calls him should be dominating him, but obviously AQ is a possibility. so let's say AQ-A9, KQ, 22-88 (we'll leave out hands like KJ/QJ to be conservative.)
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.9869 % [ 00.41 00.04 ] { KQs }
Hand 2: 55.0131 % [ 00.51 00.04 ] { 88-22, AQs-A9s, KQs, AQo-A9o, KQo }
Assuming we get called by a stack that covers us, the pot size will be 3900 (our 1500, the caller's 1500 and 900 dead money) and our equity in the pot is 3900*.45 = T1755, a profit of T255.
So even with what I think are extremely conservative assumptions, this move will earn a profit on average of (T1100*.25)+(T255*.75) = T466.25 - that's over a quarter of his stack! You might be good enough to pass up +EV31% situations, I assure you that most of the rest of the poker playing population is not.
|