Thread: Born in the USA
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Old 03-27-2003, 12:00 PM
Lee Jones Lee Jones is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 271
Default Re: Born in the USA

Hmmm. I can't see going to war with your set. After all, the guy three-bet you from out of position. My (very limited) experience in the Mirage 10-20 is that those guys are not there to gamble it up. And if somebody who isn't there to gamble it up three-bets from the BB, there's not a lot of hands I put him on. AA, KK, QQ, AK.

So, this seems to be "way ahead or way behind", right? It's weird to say that about a set, but as you say, when you get check-raised twice in a row, you start to wonder. Sure, he can have AA or AK. Or KK or QQ. I'm going to leave JT out of the mix for the moment, but it's a terrifying possibility because he has the stone cold nuts.

Anyway, let's see... e^pi / (X ^ (1/3))... 6 AA, 12 AK, 3 KK, 3 QQ. So you should be way in front at least 75% of the time (we'll let the JT's cancel the "everything else's"). So maybe I'm wrong, maybe you should re-raise him. On the other hand, it seems that your downside potential is greater than your upside. If you're truly in front, he'll just call (at best) a three-bet. But he'll probably four-bet you with KK or QQ, and you have to call.

Furthermore, re-raising the river is out of the question - I'm sure you were expecting to see hearts when he check-raised the river. And your "call the flop raise the turn" play looks great (which he bollocksed up by check-raising you). Eh, so maybe you three-bet the turn - but are you doing so with the intent to bet the river if he calls your three-bet? Fold if he four-bets? Yikes. Folding this hand seems out of the question, so you have to ask yourself how many bets you really wanna put in. You flopped bottom set with a straight possible - this is not the hill I want to die on.

You got 6.5 BB's out of him - that's not too bad.

Regards, Lee

P.S. You didn't say what the suit texture of the flop was, but if he could have something like Ah-Kh and have flopped top-top with the flush draw, well, I'd check-raise that three times :-).
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