View Single Post
  #12  
Old 05-03-2005, 03:43 AM
david050173 david050173 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 25
Default Re: Going against the numbers of eastbay\'s calc

[ QUOTE ]
1) why isnt this a clear call? hes been raising all day and you have a great hand. if you had AK would you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

The argument is that the BB will have to survive at least 1 all in so you have a chance to squeak into the money.If you have a few more chips (lets say 1K) I think this is an easy fold. AK has a few less hands (AK and QQ) to worry about but I think I would play them the same.

Lets look at the possible ways this plays out
a) you both fold
other small stack has 200 chips you have 400. He goes all in the next hand. If he wins (probably slightly less than 50% chance) you are going to have to survive your blinds. Either way you are both fighting for 3rd.

b) you fold and he calls
If he wins your in big trouble (400 chips to 1400). He will probably win about 30-40% of the time. Again if he loses you are going to have a very hard time getting better than 3rd.

c) you call and he folds
You are probably either a 3:1 favorite or a coinflip. Throw it all together and less say your ~60% favorite to win. If you win you will have 1600 chips which will be stack big enought to have a shot at 1st

d) you both call. This one is hard to evaluate BB could have almost anything and the raiser is about the same. You are probably ~40% to win this but if you lose, half the time you are splitting 3rd place money

In the end I push this because I hate seeing the BB survive and ending up having to put all your chips in with 73o.
Reply With Quote