[cassady]

[ QUOTE ]
The question here is not "Do I bet?", but rather "Do I call a raise?".

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I'll say out the outset I think not value betting when scare cards hit may be a consistent leak in my game. In two hours of play last night, in three or four instances I checked the river against one or two opponents, it was checked behind, and I took the pot down. If half of those people would have called, that's a big bet an hour leak. So I'm re-evaluating this a lot right now........

BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you? Probably something like a J-10 that went inproved to two pair on the river. Maybe an AJ if it was a passive player. But a set would have fought on the turn and the river given the draws that are out there.

I think the odds of being called and winning are less than 50%. I think even faced with a raise I'd pay to see the cards when holding top set. So the times we're unsuccessful will cost us two bets. For me, this is a check-call situation.

Now, re-evaluating my value betting, I'm totally open to flaws in this analysis.


EDIT: just woke up......didn't notice the player was closing the action. This makes it closer to a bet. But I'm still not sure who would call without having us beat.