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Old 04-29-2005, 03:25 PM
RiverDood RiverDood is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: California
Posts: 113
Default Re: Tough laydowns -- here\'s some perspective

Fascinating question. This has been the toughest flaw in my game to eradicate: playing tight, getting a premium hand, hitting the flop and then insisting on playing it to the river in the face of evidence that my TPTK is in trouble. I'm still working on it. But here are some thoughts that have helped me dodge a few disasters.

1. You need to realize that if you're playing tight, by the time your premium hand does come, you've been throwing away J5s, Q9o again and again for the previous dozen hands or so. You're itching for action. Maybe you've even seen a time when those shabby pocket cards would have matched the flop stunningly well -- so you threw away a long-shot winner. That's created some deep-down anxiety in you that you're playing too tight and need to make a stand fast. This unhelpful urge can happen even though you're intellectually comfortable with your hand-selection strategy.

2. Now you've finally got a premium hand. You didn't join this table to be weak/tight. You want to make it work. But . . . in your pre-game prep, you didn't stop to think: how often will AK turn out to be the best hand in various scenarios (One opponent; multiple; hit the flop; don't.)I'm guessing at the answers, but it's probably something like 85% when you hit the flop against 1 opponent; 35% or less when you don't. Not 100% in either case. You haven't mentally built in a pathway that says: "In certain situations, I will lay down my premium hand, even if it's working, in the face of something that reluctantly must be credited as a stronger hand."

3. When you do end up in such a situation, yes, you're hearing one inner voice that says: "Let it go, he could have Aces." But you're hearing another inner voice that says: "Be aggressive. Seize the pot. There are always scare cards and scare scenarios, and only sissies fold to them."

It's still a very tough read. But if you come in anticipating that you'll need to lay down AK occasionally, even on a good flop, you'll be much more likely to get the read right.

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That said, why not raise preflop by the classic 3x? Otherwise , with you UTG, you're giving other limpers a chance to see the flop cheaply and then benefit from better position in post-flop play.

If you raise prefolp, let's assume the limpers never enter and the SB raises you back. Then you can assume he's QQ, KK, AA or AK. It narrows his range of hands. You probably call his reraise preflop, but now you've got much more reason to be wary.

After the flop betting, you know it isn't QQ -- and maybe not even AK. At which point it's probably easier to get away from the hand.
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