[edthayer]

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Why are you using future tense? The alien has made (Note: past tense) his decision. It's wishful thinking to imagine that you can influence the course of events in the past.

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Excellent post, gasgod.

I don't think the alien is ever able to predict the future in any version of this problem. Nor does he have God-like powers to alter past events. Also, the possibility that the alien is cheating was never posed, and seeing as this is a hypothetical situation, we shouldn't give any consideration to that possibility.

The problem is written in such a way that if you believe in free will, you believe that the alien is fallible in his predictions. If you are a determinist, then you believe the alien will always be correct, because he will always know your decision.

But regardless of whether free will or determinism is correct, it's still always correct to take both boxes, because of the simple fact that the past is set in stone.