[Holybull]

Picking a Derby winner early is very, very difficult. The contenders are just starting to emerge now, and many of the early hyped-up favorites are not even in the picture any more. In my opinion, the major factors in picking a Derby winner are:

1. The horse must peak on Derby day. Many times a horse will run a huge race in March or April, but those efforts almost always take too much out of them, and they're flat in the Derby. The best pattern is to run a nice race in early March, then take a step back in the final prep. Almost every Derby winner the past 10 years has shown this pattern.

2. Pedigree. Only a handful of sire lines produce most Derby winners. Obviously Unbridled, Storm Cat, Seattle Slew are the big ones to watch.

3. Running Style. You do not want a horse that is a dead closer. Most Derby winners have run just off the pace in most of their prep races. They have enough speed to adjust to the pace of the Derby.

4. A good foundation of races. You want a horse that has had between 1-3 starts as a 2 year old. And you want a horse that will have 3-4 starts as a 3 year old. Any more, and the horse is worn out, any less and the horse is probably not tough enough, or is fragile.

I'm eliminating several horses that were contenders in the 2nd future pool. Inomorato(#4 above), Trust and Luck(4),Kafwain(2,4), Badge of Silver(1),Composure/Domestic Dispute(4).

My list of contenders includes Empire Maker. He's an obvious contender now, but there is zero value in betting him so it doesn't matter. Ministers Wild Cat is on the right path. The only thing that worries me is that Neil Drysdale seems to have the attitude that the Derby is "just another race". Aristocat is improving nicely. I don't know if Tale of the Cat is enough of a stamina sire though. Indy Dancer and Region of Merit are 2 others I'm watching.

Good luck!