Re: Leaking finding
Beavis - O.K., I'll bite. What does AA have to do with this hand/board?
You have a crummy starting hand, even for a free ride from the big blind. I think most would advise you to fold to the raise here, and I can certainly see a fold. Still, I think there is something to be said for defending your big blind. Thus I feel enigmatic about your defense of your big blind.
Then you flop middle set with a 4th nut flush draw and some back-door straight possibilities. Flopped middle set is not usually a very good holding and your flopped middle set is worse than usual because one of your outs for a board pairing is in your own hand.
If your 2nd round bet would knock anyone out who would end up beating you, it might be worthwhile. But after the raise seen by five of you, I don't think you're knocking out the straight draws, anyone with flopped top set, or anyone drawing to top two pair either - or probably even anyone drawing to top and bottom pair. You might knock out some low draws, and some back-door high draws or bottom set or bottom two pair, but maybe not - and you should kind of want those people hanging around anyhow, just in case the board pairs beneath your set of nines (or a miracle nine appears). But your 2nd round bet is not going to cause anybody who might do harm to you to fold anyhow. Therefore it's not a good bet, IMHO.
The turn is horrid for you. Doesn't help you at all but it might help others at the table. They're all drawing for somthing. (You too. You're drawing for four outs, the case nine or any of the three missing sixes. It's 40 to 4 against your making your draw on the river, ten to one, and you're not going to get that much out of the pot even if you do make your draw).
One could make a very strong case for folding to the bet on the third betting round. Basically I don't think you have favorable odds, even though you probably have the best current hand. But that typically will change on the river unless the board is paired or flushed by the turn - and maybe even then. But without even a straight yet possible, you should expect a change on the river - and the odds are about 10 to 1 you shouldn't like the change much.
As it happens, the river enables a spade flush, a straight, and another higher set than your set of nines.
Plain and simple, you missed your draw. Your flopped set of nines is junk. Still, it's hard to fault your crying call here, since nobody can raise behind you. I'd generally call this river bet too, fully expecting to usually lose, but catching a bluff often enough to make a call probably the correct move.
In my humble opinion, your worst move is betting your flopped middle set on the second betting round. One could make a very good case for check/folding the flopped middle set on the second betting round. Hurts to do it, especially after the pre-flop raise, but I think check/folding after this flop is best. (If your flopped middle set was kings or queens, there would be different considerations).
I think your second worst move is calling the turn bet.
Others here will think calling the pre-flop raise was your worst move, and I can see that point of view.
Just my opinion.
Buzz
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