Re: I cant win on Party Poker
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So I need to get to the showdown more often AND win more when I get there - sounds like a tough recipe.”
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No one said it was easy!
Seriously tho, 1300 hands * .21 VPIP *.31 went showdown is 85 hands to showdown. You won 58% or 49 hands. If you had won say 57 hands, your Won$SD& would be 67%, which is in the target zone. So if you could have identified just 8 hands out of the 273 (1300*.21) where you saw a flop, and changed your action from folding to winning at showdown, your numbers would reflect a different result. If you’d won just half the pot those 8 times and each pot was 8BBs, then 8*8*.5=32BB swing or net effect of 64BB, which would have moved your result from -4BB/100 to about +0.5BB/100
Add that to the money you’d have saved from being a little less aggressive and a) saving those bets when you folded, and b) encouraging more calls on monster hands, and your aggregate win rate might have been higher.
Again, the main take-way is that with only 49 or 57 hands won at showdown by far the biggest factor here is variance, so this is not a comment on your play.
The secondary takeaway is that if your numbers were true long term numbers, this analysis would give you some indication as to where to look for leaks, and why those leaks might indeed be leaks.
--Greg
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