Re: Baseball Totals
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I am surprised by the responses I have gotten. I am trying to take a mathematical approach to computing baseball totals. I have yet to see anyone make a single argument against my approach.
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It's nothing personal. We are trying to help save you hundreds of hours of work by telling you the things we learned the hard way.
I don't think you fully appreciate the value of nonparametric and/or distribution-free statistics. You are basically assuming a symmetric distribution of runs in all your calculations. That simply is not the case, and it is not close enough to assume the difference is negligible. You should be trying to calculate the probability that a game will go over the posted total. To do that, you need to approximate the distribution of the runs scored. If your assumption about the distribution is wrong, it doesn't matter if your expected runs calculation is perfect in every other way.
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