[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponents seem typical. Haven't seen them do anything particularly stupid, but the initial raiser is probably one of the weaker players.

***** Hand History for Game 1928952583 *****
NL Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:11496166 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, April 21, 15:58:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 11645 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: nott0m ( $1750 )
Seat 2: Oahuraised ( $1230 )
Seat 4: jshader1 ( $1365 )
Seat 8: Kingmamajama ( $2955 )
Seat 10: rambling_man ( $700 )
Trny:11496166 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to nott0m [ Js Jd ]
Oahuraised raises [600].
jshader1 is all-In [1365]
Kingmamajama folds.
rambling_man folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reason I might fold is b/c if you do, UTG will call almost 100% of the time, and either UTG is eliminated or UTG+1 has 135 chips (and if UTG it a total pussy, then he's down to 630 and in the BB next hand). That leaves you and rambling_man (550 chips after posting SB and folding and in the blinds just before you) battling for 3rd, with you having a huge edge on him, and still leaving you with enough chips to make a comeback and finish 2nd or 1st a decent % of the time.

If that "meta factor" wasn't there, I'd want to know how aggressive (overaggressive) UTG+1 is. Also, does UTG mini-raise with some frequency? If UTG+1 is on the aggressive side, and UTG has been mini-raising before (i.e., less likely to be a trap raise with an overpair), then it would be an insta-push in a lot of spots (especially since even if you lose, you'll still have a few chips to try and win a showdown and get back in it, and you'll have a few hands to pick which one to make a stand on). It's just the relative chip position you have against rambling_man (er..post..no, man), and the equal stacks of UTG and UTG+1 that makes me want to be a pussy here and fold.

I'd think that even if you were 50% on average (3-way pot sometimes, 2-way pot sometimes, etc. - 50% seems about right given possible ranges of hands for UTG/UTG+1), given all the stack sizes, it might be more +EV$ to lay it down. But I haven't crunched any numbers to back that thought up (though I might if someone flames me hard enough). But having ~5,000 chips 50% of the time (and $0 50% of the time) vs. 1400 chips 100% of the time (basically 4-player, with a 550 stack that you have a big edge on)...hmmmmmm....

If SB had, say 1500 chips after posting, I'd probably push the JJ. Depends, depends, depends...