Re: Jacks on the bubble +1
Is this a $33?
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Haven't seen them do anything particularly stupid, but the initial raiser is probably one of the weaker players.
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OK, it's probably 50/50 if original raiser calls your call. If second raiser had been the original pusher, I'm assuming you'd auto call here. Out of curiosity, is he pissed at original raiser for anything, like a bad beat or two earlier? (I ask because I see this with frequent VPIPers) furthermore, it would open up his hand range.
Without any reads, I think you're very right to put second raiser on a tight range. I'd probably say 77+, and AQ+. You're a 55% favorite against this range.
Other short stack is big blind next hand. Your edge here is very slight if it turns out to be headsup (although there'd be a lot of deadmoney in the pot), and you're below a 50% favorite if original raiser calls (I estimate 43% favorite). I think folding here puts you in a great position no matter the outcome of this hand.
The one argument that can be made to call, is that if you call and win, your chipstack puts you in incredible position to win. I don't give this much weight here.
Interesting side note: QQ has nearly a 2:1 advantage over the hand range discussed. Specifically, it carries a 7% higher win probability. Just a reflection of the big drop off from QQ to JJ is.
Scuba
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