[Blarg]

Interesting to think about.

I think the chances of a call from UTG are increased because of the short stack. The big blind will put the short stack basically all-in in just two more hands anyway, and by the time the small blind is done, all shortstack's money will have been in the pot anyway. So if shortstack has any kind of hand at all, he might well call a push from hero, hoping to get some serious chip mileage out of having two players to collect from if he wins. He's not going to have much time to wait for a stealing opportunity, after all.

If the short stack calls, then in turn UTG is looking at a lot of money in the pot and a chance to knock out two players and land in the money, tied for first, all in one hand. This is an attractive gamble indeed for a gambling type.

For some reason I'm putting UTG on Ace-Ten or Ace-Any, a small or medium pair, or something not thrilling. Either that or a total trap like AA. In either case, even if both blinds fold he is looking at getting a crack at about $3.1k for putting in just $1843 of his own money when calling a push from hero, perhaps up to almost $3.6k for his $1.8k if the short stack chimes in with an all-in of his own. Two to one odds are pretty good, and a little less isn't bad either.

It seems to me there would be a decent chance of UTG calling a push even with a pretty mediocre hand.

Then again, I only play the 10's. I'm sure the likelihood of people calling with all kinds of garbage has got to have at least some effect on how I view whether people are likely to call with either good or bad hands.