Re: Double shootout hand
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if you for some reason knew that this villain was a very good player, i think you could think about folding.
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Many bad players will play their flush and other draws exactly like this. I don't like paying bad players who hit their flush, even if I get good odds. I agree that the pot-odds here are a bit too good, but still, it's not an auto call for me.
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I may have overstated the case for calling in my first post - i don't mean to imply that you're going to win this hand 50% or even 30%. but you only need to win it ~18%, and i think you do comfortably.
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I'm not disagreeing with you here. I'm not saying it's an easy fold or anything, only that you're going to see a flush here too many times, IMO, with this bet coming from the PF-limper on this board. Without the flush card hitting it becomes a much easier call against such opponents. The fact that it's practically a winner takes all should make marginal calls somewhat more +$EV, although if the field is really bad (many times it is) you can probably find better spot to call.
A point that I didn't mention, is that if you see the PF limper as a really bad player, who is trying to "milk" you with AJ, there's even a case for raising him at the end (i.e, pushing), especially if you put him on AJ. Why only call if you put him on AJ? He won't fold it now anyway, so it's certainly not a case of "worse hands will fold, and only better hands will call". Unless there's a much too big a chance he's on the flush, and then, again, calling becomes problematic to begin with.
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