All right here is an idea, tell me what you think.
#If this thought is misguided please tell me why.# Utilizing the weighed coin example: 75% of the time heads comes up:
If you kept count of the amount heads came up over the course of 100 flips and you reached your positive expectation at, lets say, 83 flips. That is to say heads showed up 75 times in about 83 flips on a particular round of 100 flips, here is my question...
Since every time you bet with your crooked acquaintence, heads hit 75 times every time you completed a full round of 100 flips, would it not be more profitable to switch immediately to tails and therefore attempt to win more than your alotted 75% guaranteed heads results. Is it a bad play considering the consistency of heads this round of betting, & what's to stop the same exact coin from hitting heads until the 100th flip and then hitting tails on the next round of betting for the first 31 of 50 times before resuming the pattern? [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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