[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
There's a formula for calculating win percentage for Team A against Team B based on A's and B's win percentage

[/ QUOTE ]

This formula is the most oft used weapon in my handicapping arsenal.

[ QUOTE ]
If the Yankees are a 60% team, and Johnson wins 65% of his starts on an INFERIOR team

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it's the Yankees that are looking inferior this season [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Most of his career has been spent on playoff caliber teams. Even those Seattle teams had monster lineups, just no other starters besides him and the crappiest bullpen in history which he didn't need so much.

Obviously you have to look at the matchup. At the end of last season there were some totally ridiculous lines. I remember one game where Pedro was about -450 (he lost) and the Cubs down the stretch losing game after game in the -350 range.

The reason last night was a good bet is because if you have watched Johnson pitch at all this year he just doesn't have it (yet?). He's getting his K's but he's getting jacked too with way more HRs than usual.