[craig r]

You mentioned the worst teams win 40% of the time and the best win around 60%, but how often do teams that win 40% beat teams that win 60%. I am almost positive from my research (i just moved so I have no idea where my notes are) that 40% teams do not beat 60% teams 40% of the time. Regardless though...

Do you really think that blindly betting lines of -330/+300 are beatable? I am not saying they are not beatable, I am saying that they aren't beatable by betting them blindly.

I think the value in these huge dogs is by finding rogue lines. But, you have to find them at sites that don't charge a lot of juice. For example, lets say the closing market line for yesterday's games was -350/+320. But, if bowmans was offering -390/+350, this might not be a horrible bet (as long as the +350 was higher than the true line). But, if the line at Bowmans was -400/+330, this is not as good.

And that is what happens a lot. The public bets on the favs, but the line doesn't move at the same rate on the dog as it does the fav.

craig