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Old 04-20-2005, 01:04 AM
UncleSalty UncleSalty is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Composing Vogon poetry
Posts: 513
Default Re: Standard Deviation of PT Stats (Light Math)

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They basically mean that variance sucks ass.

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Variance in Texas Hold'em is God's greatest gift to skilled players. Without variance allowing absolute morons to score some very big wins on a semi-regular basis, we would very quickly run out of fish and end up playing each other. (Yikes.)

Say it with me kids..."I love variance".

Statistically speaking, your standard deviation is used to provide a level of confidence in your winrate. It's been a long time since I took a stats class, so I'm sure some of our resident math whizzes can provide more clarity.

Basically, you can be about 99% confident that your "true" winrate is within 3 standard deviations on either side of your current average winrate after 13K hands. I believe the confidence interval for just one SD is about 78% or so.

So, what it really means is that your 13K hand sample size doesn't tell you dick about your true winrate.
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