[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
I always find it very weird playing satellites awarding exactly two seats, because when it gets down to three players you're in the blinds 2/3 of the time, and all you care about is not being the first to go broke.

On this hand the stacks were:

SB: 6,600
BB: 8,300 (me)
button: 12,100

Blinds were 200/400, ante 25; hence the smallest stack had 16xBB, not quite desperate yet, but getting there. All three of us had been playing well, that is to say cautiously considering that two would get seats.

Button limps for 400, small blind completes, and I check with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked around.

Turn: [6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Pot is 1275. SB checks, I check, button bets 800, SB folds. I have a flush draw and a double-gutshot straight draw. What's my play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would villain semi-bluff a draw here? My guess is "no" since he's the chip-leader and doesn't NEED to take risks, even calculated ones.

Granted, I wasn't at the table but my initial reaction is that he's got a weak made hand and is just value betting this draw heavy board (K9, A9, a set-highly doubtful, overpair?). I don't see him entering a pot that would give him a made straight or two pair if the play is as cautious as you describe.

Soooo, I'd call the ~800, pray for a 4, 5, club or even a diamond that would complete your smoke and mirrors draw and fire a strong ~2,000 bet. If the river is a brick I'm done with the hand.

As I type this it feels too weak. I don't know. Interesting hand.

Pep.