Re: NBA MVP
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I bet at pinnaclesports.com and they came out with the NBA MVP odds today. I am 99% sure they MVP will either be Nash or Shaq. The only other person worthy of MVP is LeBron James but the Cavs are on the playoff bubble while the Suns and Heat are #1 in their respective conferences. Here are the odds:
Shaq- 2.14 to 1
Nash- 2.76 to 1
I have a $900 bankroll and plan on putting $450 on each.
I give Shaq a 68% chance of winning and give Nash a 31% chance of winning, while someone else will win 1% of the time. So....
68% of the time- +63
31% of the time- +342
1% of the time- -900
Anyone disagree?
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I don't understand your bet distribution. If you think that Shaq will win 68% of the time, wouldn't you want to make it so that you stand to win MORE money when that happens rather than when Nash wins?
i.e., you bet 550 on Shaq, and 350 on Nash. Now you win 277 68% of the time, and 66 31% of the time. You're still 99% sure of a win, but your EV goes from $140 to $200.
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DING DING DING.
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