Re: Question on all streets and most importantly the river.
[ QUOTE ]
Don't like the 3bet? Three-betting here is +EV even if hero didn't have a pair. With the additional A and T outs, hero has a great draw here, more than enough to 3bet.
Check/call the turn, though, because your draw isn't nearly as strong any more. You'd need a 3rd caller for betting to be +EV here. Check/fold the river. No sense overcalling with third pair.
[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that I was too conservative in this case. For whatever reason, I didn't have Hero's other 5 outs in mind. 3-betting here is fine.
However, there's a slight fallacy in the idea that a flush draw has 35% equity. While it is true that a flush draw comes in 35% of the time, it is not true that Hero always wins with his flush draw. Hero's equity is actually closer to 30%, depending on the specific conditions (more players = lower equity, paired board = lower equity, non-nut flush = lower equity). These are things that many over-aggressive players often fail to consider. 3-betting with a flush draw alone with two opponents is a very thin value raise (if not slightly -EV).
|