[sqvirrel]

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The 25% equity figure is taken from seeing the next two cards, i.e. getting to the River.

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I understand this but many posters are treating our hypothetical that Button has 25% pot equity which he doesn't. It would take a bit of fancy math but to simplify things ou need to consider all likely future bets if you want to calculate Button's draw to the river. Button stands to put in 3sb to try to win an 11.5sb - 13.5sb pot. Button barely has odds to plan to see the river and this doesn't account for all the things that could go wrong.

I think the preferred line if Button plans to see the river is to three bet the checkraise and take a free card. Then it is only 2sb to win a 9.5sb - 11sb pot.

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How can a mistake-free hand be as profitable as one littered with mistakes? Clearly this can be the case,

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It is not the case. We see players make plays with negative expectations and realize positive results all the time. Over the long haul negative plays are negative plays, but it is by no means linear. We talk about pot ownership, for example in out hypothetical Button owns 13.33% of the pot facing 1sb to call, but he will never win exactly 13.33%. He will win 100% or 0%. Over time though and under identical circumstances he will win Exactly 13.33%. Whether or not he is correct to call is irrelevant regarding his expectation.