[sqvirrel]

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We are left with the Turn call as the only long-term net loser (of 0.5 BB), and given the right pot odds, is an easy call for profit

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But the call itself is a money loser, it is only profitable in the context of the entire pot. As has been pointed out elsewhere Button much prefers a free card on a draw. Every new dollar going in to the pot reduces his expected profit from the hand.

A problem I am having with this thread though is the assumptions. As outsiders we can easily calculate each players' odds of winning but taken from table view it is much different

Given the checkraise on the flop it is debatable if Button should call at all, if he is positive that BB has at minimum a hand that beats him. Not accounting for rake there are 7.5sb in the pot at this point. Button has to pay 13.33% of the pot to see another card (bear in mind that accounting for rake this percentage is higher). Oddly enough he has exactly a 13.33% chance of hitting one of his six outs, if they all are clean, but that's a big if. The only thing that justifies the call is implied odds, knowing he will be able to collect 2-6 additional sb if his draw hits. But this is also assuming that BB doesn't have something that already beats Button's potential pair, or in some way counterfeits it.

Now I think the call is still the clear play here, but it is somewhat skinnier from Button's perspective than 'my six outs are good'.

If Button does call the flop bet and misses on the turn then it is a clear fold. He is looking at another BB to draw to a 5.25BB pot. Button would have to pay 20% of the pot to draw to a 13.6% chance of hitting. Even if he can count on 2 more Big Bets from BB and if he can count on being good if he hits (a stretch) he is still paying slightly more (13.9%) than his equity to draw.

Edit: I think a much more honest approach to this hand from the Button's point of view is to discount his outs, somewhat depending on flop texture. Ragged flop middle cards taken more seriously than a two suited flop like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . Button should also account for potential redraws up front. Even if he hits his overcard draw and is ahead, BB still has an 11% to redraw which is huge. Additionally Button should account for the potential that BB is defending with something like K8 and on an 8xx flop counterfeits his own KT. Won't happen often, but it will happen often enough. I would guess that at minimum Button should discount his outs by 1 except on the most draw happy flops and forge ahead with his decision from there.

Regardless it is much murkier than playing with 25% as a draw since it simply isn't correct.