[SamIAm]

First, let me say you made a good post, and brought up lots of good ideas. I'm not even sure what the correct answer is; I just wanted to comment on some of your points.

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WHY THE HELL ARE YOU RAISING???

[/ QUOTE ]Because I likely have 3 outs to the ace. I'm not at ALL sure those are dead, and if they still give me the best hand on the turn, I'll be really glad I thinned the field. What hands am I pushing out? Any hand that has a draw to beat top-pair after the turn. Ya know, like ... almost any hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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MP2 is a "sLA-A", so he's ALMOST CERTAINLY going to raise this flop

[/ QUOTE ]I think this is a stretch. I'd write the "ALMOST" in all caps, but not the "CERTAINLY". He's listed by PokerTracker as aggressive postflop, but that's not because he's a maniac. Heck, you get a higher AF by betting, but also by FOLDING. And ya know what makes him less likely to raise the flop? Raising in front of him. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Also, we haven't considered the chances that you draw to a split pot by the river, or that you actually lose to a flush or a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]The flush and boat seem much more likely than splitting the pot. Even still, I think implied odds more than make-up for the redraws.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop

[/ QUOTE ]I assume you mean fold to the initial bet. That seems really tight. Your very pessimistic outlook seems close? (Ace outs are dead. I'll face a raise behind me. I could get redrawn. It's still marginally +EV?) If you're wrong on a few of those, that seems to make it easy to play the hand.

-Sam