Re: Me vs Scotty Nguyen
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it looks like you played it like an overpair. he made a great call, thats all there is to it. Maybe you had a tell :P
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That's not really how most people play an overpair unless they are looking to go broke.
I don't think Scotty's call on the river was anything special. Let's break this hand down and analyze each street:
pf. 500 in antes (assuming 10 players, maybe it is only 450 or even 400). Folded around to Scotty who completes, puts 300 into a pot with 1400, so now there is 1700 in it.
Hero Raises 1000, which is pretty odd. Pot is now 2700 and Scotty calls getting 2.7:1.
So is the raise to 1K a sweetener with a big pair? An attempted steal? Value bet from a good hand? All possible at this point.
Flop comes ten high (I am assuming ragged rainbow). Check Check. Ok, we haven't really ruled anything out yet, though small pocket pairs (not set up) are looking less likely.
Turn comes a queen. Scotty now has tpwk and checks. Hero bets 1300 into a pot of 3700. So scotty is getting 5:1.3 on his call. Sure, gotta call there, but he can still be way behind. Hero can put Scotty on two cards that are not drawing dead to a queen. That's about it. He's getting almost 4:1 with hero having 7K behind he may be able to get, so you cannot rule out hands like gut shots, middle pair and possibly even overs.
River comes a 3, pairing the board. That counterfeits some two pair hands, but really does not change much.
Scotty checks and Hero pushes for 7K into a 6.3K pot.
Stop. What just happened there. Why the over bet after those small bets? Does Hero have a sneaky 3 (A3s maybe?). Has he been slowplaying a set and fishing for a three? Why would he expect Scotty to call if he had a big hand? A big hand would like to get some more value out of this hand, and Scotty has not exactly been oozing strength. Could this be a marginal hand like KQ that is betting for value? That is a very bad play IMO here, since there are only a few hands that call you that don't beat you. So just what the hell is up with that bet out of nowhere?
So Scotty thinks either he has a huge hand and just got incredibly lucky that I have a queen or he is just trying to buy this pot. I am getting almost 2:1 on my call, and have almost 20BB if I call and lose. Scotty has got to believe he is ahead more than 1 time in 3 here. He's probably thinking he is ahead a lot more than half the time, because the bet just does not make sense.
To me this is an easy call. For those who say "That's why you overbet with a monster there, becuase you will arouse suspicion and get bad calls," remember, this only gets called by a hand that can beat a bluff (like a pocket pair less than Q's). So, most of the time you overbet with a big hand you get nothing. You cannot put Scotty on anything other than a hand that is big enough to call small bets getting great pot odds pre flop and on the turn.
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