[James282]

Hey andy, I think calling down in situations like this is generally a leak as well. Maybe not against me, because I am capable of making a move against an opponent that I think is "good enough" to fold for the final bet on the river, but against most "tight aggressive" but relatively straightforward players(which make up the overwhelming majority of 2+2ers), I think paying off in situations like this is a pretty big leak. Your average 2+2er isn't betting the river with 88 or JJ hoping to get a better hand to fold because they know in these situations a "good player" will almost always call down with a better hand, but fold a worse one. Similarly, most average twoplustwoers wouldn't raise the turn with these hands in the first place.

But, this situation is probably not the best to exemplify my point about paying off rivers for 1 bet after calling the turn with a hand that you aren't drawing correctly for if behind, because I know people will come in with pot size arguments are try to whittle this situation down to being unimportant or much closer than it appears to be on the surface(whereas I believe it is actually less close than it appears on the surface).

A better example of this "call the turn not hoping to improve but folding the river for one bet" comes in a scenario where I see otherwise good players paying off over and over again.

Say you have a smallish pair(44-77) and it's folded to you in late position. You raise and are three-bet by a player who has similar vpip and pfr stats to yours. You haven't noticed him get out of line postflop and deem him generally "solid" but not too tricky or overaggressive. It's folded back to you and you call, deciding to call down unless the board gets too scary. So then, the board doesn't get too scary and you call the turn. Let's say it's J8329 on the river. You check to him and he bets into you. You call down because hey, the board isn't too scary. What % of the time do you think you are good when he bets here? Me, I think it's a huge mistake. Maybe it's night and day from the other hand, but I don't think so. You call the turn hoping you are best, which you very well might be, but I think that once that river bet gets fired you have a whole new set of information. Almost all "good" players will not give you enough credit that they think you can fold a pair or any piece of the board, and will almost always check behind unimproved big aces on the river. OTOH, they will always bet when they are ahead. But alas, I see otherwise good players pay off in situations like these all the time. Maybe they think their reads aren't good enough to make that fold...but reads like that can significantly add to one's hourly rate, IMO.
-James