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Old 04-08-2005, 09:09 AM
Myrtle Myrtle is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 388
Default Re: Act III Super Satellite......on the bubble action

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So here is the question I would be asking myself:

* What are the chances 4 others will go out before me?

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I figure those chances to be slim. I am now the smallest stack at the table, and am facing putting in T3k into the SB in my next hand if I fold this AQo.

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* How many hands can I sit around and wait? 7 - 8?

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Given what I know at this moment......Strong player to my left is likely to call any steal attempt of mine while I am SB. If I fold and then fold my SB, I will then have T11.5K to work with. That stack is too small to threaten any other stack at the table, and I'm likely to get called on any all-in attempt, so I must count on finding a premium hand to move in with. Given that I know that the big stack is likely to muck any 2 cards, he would be the best target, BUT, any all-in raise of mine would have to make it through the rest of the field to get to him.....I believe that is highly unlikely, as the rest of the field also knows this.

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* Will I have a better opportunity to double up plus pickup the antes and the SB's 2k?

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This is connected to the above issue, methinks........It boils down to the likelihood of hero finding a better hand than AQo with which to move in on. My now T11.5K stack is now also losing T1K with every hand dealt. I could ‘rock up’ and count on either finding a big hand, or having 3 others bust out and get lucky to back into a seat. If I do this, it will put me virtually all-in on my next BB (leaving me T.5K to post my next SB). What I SHOULD have done in this spot, was to call TIME, get up, turn around and count the stacks of Table 1 that was directly behind me. I did not do this, and this was an error on my part. I took it for granted that all the stacks there were larger than I was, as I had been at the table previously, and the only player that had busted out since I moved was the one player with a smaller stack than mine. I did not take into consideration that there could have been a significant stack status change in a number of players there......my bad.

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All that being said I think the button has talked the SB into playing passively, ALLOWING, the Button to make plays like this without getting into it with the Big stack.

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It was the player on my LEFT, who was doing the talking, not the Button, who had just moved in on me.....

The only other bit of info that I picked up on at the time was the buttons statement to me...... “I GUESS I have to put you all-in”. I gave him credit for being a good player, and interpreted that statement as...... ‘I’ve got one of those hands that is likely to be ahead of your random 2-card BB, so I’ve got to move on you’. I narrowed that down to.....I don’t have AA, KK or AK, but I could have anything from AQ to 22.......Had he had a premium hand, he would more than likely just silently moved all-in.

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I think based on your previous discussions with the table coach it’s a call.

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.............and that’s what I did.......He turns over 77.....flop is Q (whoopee!!) rag......SEVEN (groan!)....A came on turn, but no miracle A or Q and I’m out 12th..........

The feedback I’m most interested in is whether or not there were other considerations that should have entered my thought process before I took action..........
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