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Old 02-17-2003, 03:25 PM
mdlm mdlm is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 187
Default Jones Analysis

I assume Jeffage is in MP.

Jeffage raises preflop: According to Jones he has AA-88, AKs-QJs, AQs, KJs, AJs, ATs, AK, KQ, AQ, AJ, or AT.

You reraise in LP: According to Jones you have AA-JJ, AKs, AQs, AK, or AQ

Flop is As4sTh. Jeffage checks and calls. Jones virtually never checks and calls so we will put Jeffage on top pair or better or a flush draw. This eliminates KK, QQ, JJ, 99, 88, KQ. So now Jeffage has: AA, TT, AKs, KsQs, QsJs, AQs, AQ, KsJs, AJs, ATs, AK, AQ, AJ, or AT.

You bet. Jones only bets with flush draw or top pair or better. This eliminates KK, QQ, and JJ and leaves you with AA, AKs, AQs, AK, or AQ.

Turn is 9c. Jeff check-raises you, you three-bet, and he calls. I think that this eliminates all of the flush draws (if they are not eliminated here, they are eliminated on the river), AA, and TT. This leaves Jeffage with AKs, AQs, AJs, ATs, AK, AQ, AJ, or AT. AJs and AJ are gone if Jeffage is not too aggressive. AQ and AQs might be gone as well.

You reraise. I don't think this eliminates anything. You have AA, AKs, AQs, AK, or AQ. Maybe AQ and AQs are gone.

River is Ks. Jeffage checks and calls. I don't think this eliminates anything. So Jeffage has AKs, AK, AQs, AQ, AJs, AJ, or AT. Maybe AKs and AK are gone if Jeffage is not too aggressive or he thinks that you will re-raise only with a better hand.

So I think you have: AA, AKs, or AK. Maybe AQs or AQ.
And Jeffage has: AT or ATs. Possibly AKs or AK. Maybe AQs, AQ, AJs, or AJ.

Rigo says you have TT. Jones does not re-raise in LP with TT.

Rube says you have 99. Jones does not re-raise in LP with 99.

I think it's interesting that both Rube and Rigo think that Jeffage is on AK. No one raises from MP with AT or ATs? Or does the lack of a re-raise on the turn eliminate these hands?

Also, I don't see what play moves you off AA. You bet at every possible opportunity.

I look forward to the results and your comments. Also if Jeffage would comment that would be great.
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