Re: Hand Help
I think case could be made for 3-betting the turn, even though MP2 dropped out.
10 outs to a boat or better = 22%. There needs be at least a 30%+ chance that CO raised with a hand we beat: any of a bluff or semi-bluff, a weak ace, 2pair, a smaller set, or a 'slowplayed' premium pocket pair. The only hands we're afraid of are those that actually contain a 3, and (except for the fact that this is nano-limit) we could generally rule out most of those except for 33, A3, maybe K3.
Could there be a 30%+ chance CO isn't raising with a 3? Well, a weak ace is unlikely due to 3 of them being accounted for. Set over set is rare. A crappy 2pair on this ragged board is unlikely due to the preflop coldcall (again, except for the fact that is is nano-limit). KK is possible but probably would have 3-bet preflop, and QQ/JJ are probably too scared of the A on the flop to raise the turn. That leaves a bluff/semi-bluff, the liklihood of which is very read-dependent.
So I dunno. Just something I was thinking about.
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