Re: Presto
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Of course, all of these things are accounted for in the ICM. Depending on the villain's hand, calling increases your ICM from 12.7 to 14 or 15. This is significant.
What do you think of these results?
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In general, if your $EV math says there's that much of an increase, then you must make that move (unless of course you think BB might make that move).
And back to BB, before your decision, he is getting 2.1 pot odds to call. (I know, I know, we can't assume he will make the correct move.) Furthermore, if you throw some chips in the pot, he is now getting 3.5:1 pot odds.
So, your plan consists of one of two choices:
1) Call, and hope BB doesn't call, and hope you win (a solid choice). What makes this potentially ugly is if BB decides to join. Then I'm positive that makes this -$EV.
2) Fold, and hope UTG steals blinds, or hope, BB calls and UTG wins. Following this hand you WILL have FE against both UTG and MP, IMO. And I would lean into both of these if I had the chance. What makes this strategy tricky is if BB folds on this hand.
Side note:
I narrowed your range down to any pair, any two broadway, and the $EV analysis returns 13.2%. Still a positive decision.
I'm now torn, but still leaning toward a fold. If you were the BB, this is a "have to" IMO.
Regarding the Old Coinflip Debate:
I only post it as to it's relevance regarding +CEV vs. +$EV. I believe it has relevance to pre-bubble play, from a conceptual standpoint. IMO, the point of the orginal thread involved stacksize relative to blindsize. Which is precisely what this discussion involves. (I guess that's the point of all this hand reviews...)
Scuba
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