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Have you read this post?
Bozeman on the "old coinflip debate"
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I read it a while back. I even contributed some pointlessly confusing math to that discussion.
At the time, I don't think we were using ICM. Now we can just look at the ICM and get the answers. The ICM will clearly indicate that a true coin flip is -$EV.
The 55 hand is not quite the same case as the "bubble coin flip" that they were talking about. I say this because:
- My pot odds are better than even money. I have to call 550 to win 950.
- Losing will not eliminate me (just cripple me).
- There are 6 people left, not 4.
Of course, all of these things are accounted for in the ICM. Depending on the villain's hand, calling increases your ICM from 12.7 to 14 or 15. This is significant.
What do you think of these results?