Re: Presto
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Philly, your question brings up many thoughts.
A. When to talk coinflips
B. CEV vs. $EV
C. Forward Folding Equity
I thought about your hand the whole drive to work (12 minutes). If you want to give me a hand range, I'll do the math for you. And as an added bonus, if you reply within the next 60 minutes, I'll throw in the math against any two cards as well.
Scuba
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The ICM (assuming the BB folds)...
folding = 0.127
call+win = 0.2327
call+lose = 0.0551
I need to win a little more than 40% of the time to breakeven according to ICM. There are only 7 hands (AA-66) where 55 is not the favorite, albeit a small one in many cases.
Hand ranges....
Ax, Kx, any pair, any 2 broadway = 54.122% (ICM=0.151)
Ax, KJ+, any pair = 51.929% (ICM=0.147)
A6+, KJ+, any pair = 47.883% (ICM=0.140)
Maybe I can make up for the ICM with my "skill". Here are my problems with this (in order of importance, IMO)...
-There are 6 people left.
-I'll have only 4.75xBB after I fold.
-There are 3 big stacks directly to my right who may well try to steal ahead of me on the next 3 hands.
The BB confuses things a bit, but I think this is a push.
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