Re: 8 Folds to the SB
Depends on the players, but generally that the chances the SB has a better hand does improve in some way after 8 folds. Whether the improvement has any significance is something I am not prepared to say.
Assuming your opponents are not completely insane or just having a bad day, you have gained some information. For example, you can be fairly sure none of the players who folded has a hand such as AA,KK,QQ,AK.
If we define A as the probability that the SB has a certain set of good hands, and B as the set of hands in which 8 people fold, we can derive the conditional probability:
P(A|B) = P(A AND B)/P(B)
Now, the matter at hand is to determine if P(A|B) > P(A).
I might work backwords, and start with the probability that 8 people fold given the SB has a good hand, and use the simple form of Bayes Theorem:
P(A|B) = P(A)*P(B|A)/P(B)
So,
P(A|B) > P(A) if (P(B|A)/P(B) > 1)
Now, I am pretty sure that the probability 8 people fold is greater under the condition that the SB has a good hand. After all, if the SB has a good hand, there is less 'wealth' in the other hands and that should cause them to fold more.
Therefore P(B|A)/P(B) > 1, and P(A|B) > P(A).
Now, the only problem is how much info you gained. The SB has a higher chance of having a premium hand, but he might also be adjusting for the situation and your signal-to-noise ratio might be pretty low.
- Lex
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