[gumpzilla]

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Not as expensive as the potential alternative. WTF IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?

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With the exception of Medicare and Medicaid, I don't see health insurance companies existing if they aren't making a profit. Which means that the premiums need to be worked out such that for most people, they pay in more than they get back. Now, if you know you're particularly unhealthy, then maybe (I ordinarily hate using this term outside of poker, physics or statistics contexts, but I think it actually fits here) health insurance is +EV, but I think for most people it's probably slightly -EV.

It's not purely a question of EV, of course. Most people wouldn't put all of their assets on an even money bet where they have 60-40 odds, even though it's a pretty sweet +EV situation. It's this angle that I think health insurance aims at. I certainly appreciate health insurance - I'd be out a substantial amount of money if I didn't have it right now - but I'm also not sure you appreciate how expensive health insurance can be if it's not being subsidized/paid for by an employer.

The real coup for the health insurance companies is that the big ones enter into contracts with most health care providers such that the providers write off much of what they would ordinarily bill for various procedures. As a result, now that I think of this, you can probably end up in win-win situations with your health insurance company where they profit off of you, but you still save money if you incur any kind of substantial medical bills. It's always struck me as bizarre, and at least somewhat wrong, that the people that get shafted hardest by medical bills are the ones without health insurance, who are as a rule going to be those who can least afford it.