Re: 5/10 Hand (Boring Title; Interesting Hand)
Hi Mike,
on the flop: this is a situation point - and to a lesser extent a style point. both calling and raising can maximize earn. e.g., against the weak take-a-shotters that sometimes populate late-night PP 5-10, i like to raise there. that way if i hit the flush they are much more likely to pay me off for two streets / all in. also, i often make a 2/3 pot bet if the turn is a blank and they check. but that bet works better against more experienced players. also, the weaker players get all excited when they hit a big hand and shut down to a raise then go for a checkraise right when they should fire.
against truly weak opponents who call way too much and too big, i call. might as well make the hand and shoot them in the nest.
against a typical better but not good 5-10 player, i like calling. when they check - which they do too often from out of position - you take the pot away. however it requires some heart as that is not the time for a half-pot bet.
against better competition i also like calling. then you've got him or her guessing, and there are a ton of scare cards. this works both if you have heart and if you don't.
all of these are probabilities: each has a different weighting vector with no coefficient greater than about 0.85 except against really weak players.
the river: hell yes i am betting that river. it's extraction time. think about how often you will get paid off vs how often you will lose or get blown off the hand by a bluff check-raise. if opponent is primed to go nuts, you might check. but you have a betting hand. trick is to bet enough to make it look real but maybe a bluff. you want to get paid but not get check-raised. also, you want to minimize losses when he's check-raising you with the goods. $325 is a nice number there, $275 if they need a little more encouragement. if they'll pay you off often bet more.
matt
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