[mrbaseball]

All that season long projection stuff is fine and dandy. But I look at each game and each matchup on it's own merits.

Anyway I don't think this line is right. I think Johnson and company get way too much respect here making Boston a play.

The starters probably won't go real deep anyway and I like Boston pen better than Yankees. And for Johnson's dominance over Wells? I don't see it. Sure I don't think anyone disputes that Johnson is better than Wells and much more dominating. But in reality he isn't all that much more effective?

Last season in Wells 31 starts his team (SD) went 18-13. In Johnsons 35 starts his team (AZ) went 16-19. His team lost more than half of his starts! I realize a lot of them were despite great performances by Johnson. But both guys upgrade teams, Johnson probably more than Wells. But there is something to be said in Wells' team winning 58% of his starts and Johnson's team winning only 45% of his starts.

As far as closeness of a grudge match? Boston had the better team vs team last year going 11-8 vs NY in regular season and of course 4-3 in post. It just doesn't get closer than the post season performance and if ever there are 2 teams where you can expect an emotional grudgematch filled with pure hatred for the other side this is that matchup.

If they play this game a thousand times I see it coming much closer to 500/500 than 350/650. I'm on Boston both straight up and the +1.5 runline.