Re: Pot Odds Question
Hmm, I'm getting closer to understanding. . .
I am reading, "Small Stakes Hold'em" and there is an example on pg. 96 that I find puzzling. Here is roughly the scenario.
You are late-postion with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and there 10 bets/5 players pre-flop.
The flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
The preflop raiser (mid position), raises on the flop. Three people stll act after you. The pot odds are 11:1 (correct me if I am wrong), so calling had a positive expectation, however raising is the correct play. I am trying to figure out why I should raise, and here is my thinking . . .
The pre-flop raiser probably has something like AJ, and has made a pair on the flop. For us to win we need either a Q, a 7 or we need to hit the backdoor flush draw. (assuming our opponent does not have two [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s) So there are 3 Q's, 2 7's or two consecutive hearts that can hit for the win. Assuming the pair of Jacks will call our raise (if nobody calls we win the hand), we will get pot odds of 14:2 ~ 7:1. We have 2 chances to hit either the Q or the 7 (giving 5*1.5 = 7.5 outs), and the backdoor draw is worth roughly 1.5 outs, for a total of about 9 outs. With 9 outs we need pot odds of 4.1:1 or better to profit, and since 7 > 4.1 the raise is profitable.
Is this correct reasoning as to why a raise is the best option?
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