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Old 04-01-2005, 06:28 PM
Rhone Rhone is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 177
Default win rate: gradual upswings versus sharp downswings

I was looking at a graph of my winnings over time, using this cool tool, when I noticed something I thought was interesting. Over my 55k hands, there's no question that the slopes of my upswings are much lower than the (absolute value of the) slopes of my downswings. That is, generally speaking I'll have a relatively long period of increasing winnings, followed by a short, sharp downswing, followed by another gradual upswing, etc., and the cycle repeats itself over and over.

I'm curious what the reason is behind this, as well as whether this pattern matches that of others.

The explanation that came to mind first was that I'm not good at handling a bad run of cards, and that the tilt makes my downswings sharper than they would be otherwise. If this is the right explanation, then it really gives me something to work on, and perhaps suggests I should stop playing sooner than I otherwise would when I begin to run bad, if I can't learn to turn the tilt off.

Curious what others think...

Rhone.
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