[mrbaseball]

I'll be doing a full handicap of this game this weekend but just looking at some preliminary stuff line looks pretty close to fair leaning to Bosox advantage. If anything I think Boston may have some small edge here, especially if the line goes out further.

In past 3 Aprils Johnson is 9-3 with a 3.20 era (April seems to be historically his slowest month) while Wells is 8-2 with a 3.67 era in last 3 aprils which all else being equal makes Boston look tasty at +180. And Wells does have an affinity for pitching in Yankee Stadium. But Arod and Jeter have torched Wells in the past (especially Arod with 7 HRs off of him).

The emotion and hatred factor should have a leveling influence (ie throw out the statistics it's a grudge match to the death!). Boston is a World Champion and solidly winning team and probably worth a shot at this price. I can't imagine them being this big of a dog in any other game this season?

I'll do an in depth breakdown tommorow and figure out if I actually play this one or not. But my early lean is to Boston at this price. Johnson is really getting old and who really knows what he has left? Then again I suspect Wells has very little left himself?

I know there is no way on earth I lay this wood on the Yankees. I just need to determine if there is enough edge to warrant a Boston play.