Re: Probability of 100BB Downswing
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I somehow doubt one could get an accurate enough approximation to the underlying per hand distribution.
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First off, thank you very much for the references.
As to the above, I think you may have misunderstood. We don't need enough data so that we have experienced enough 25BB downswings for an approximation. We just bootstrap. That is, make a list of of the amount won on each hand using your PT data (20K should be plenty):
0,0,0,30,0,0,-15,....
It will look sort of like the above. Now run a simulation that randomly chooses a number from that list to increment your bankroll. You can now play millions of hands to answer questions about 25BB downswings.
Do you see any problems with this approach?
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