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Old 03-31-2005, 06:34 PM
phish phish is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 47
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

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is it in anyway possible that some people actually have better luck?

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Yes and no. If you're asking whether it's possible that you have been extra unlucky in the past, then the answer is yes. There is absolutely no guarantee that cards break even over even a long period of time. (Do a cold simulation on two players w/ identical profiles and you'll see that one player may well be up substantially over a long period of time, tho the profit as a % of $$ wagered will be negligible in the long run). Now does this means that all the guys who are pros and are making money merely the ones who've been lucky. NO. Because luck, as a % of money wagered, becomes less and less over time and an expert player, even if he has been unlucky, would still have had enough of an edge to be profitable. Of course he would not have been as profitable as a similarly skilled player who has run better. My rough rule of thumb is if you're not showing profit after 50,000 hands, you're almost certainly not beating the game.

Now if you're asking whether some people are just luckier than others and this luck will continue into the future. Then the answer is a resounding NO. Regardless of what's happened in the past, in the future no one will be luckier than anyone else.
I suspect that most people who complain about luck have some major flaws in their game. And complaining about luck merely distracts you from focusing on what about your game you can improve. Your game is not perfect. think about improving it rather than complaining about luck.
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